Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| O/U 26.5 | 87% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 86% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| Jaguars vs. Ravens | 82% |
| Spread -1.5 | 80% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| Spread -2.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Spread -3.5 | 74% |
| O/U 32.5 | 74% |
| 1H Moneyline | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Spread -4.5 | 68% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 68% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| O/U 34.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 67% |
| Spread -5.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -6.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| Ravens O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| Ravens O/U 12.5 | 62% |
| O/U 36.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 38.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Ravens O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ravens Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 49% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars vs. Ravens: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Ravens Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 48% |
| Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 40.5 | 47% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 47% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Spread -13.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 42.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Ravens O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 40% |
| 2H Moneyline | 40% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 37% |
| Spread -14.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 44.5 | 35% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 34% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -16.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Ravens O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Spread -19.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 24% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Ravens O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Ravens O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Ravens O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Spread -21.5 | 19% |
| O/U 50.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 15% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Ravens O/U 23.5 | 14% |
| Ravens O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Ravens O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-12 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 11% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 13-18 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 25+ | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 19-24 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 1-6 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| O/U 60.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 7-13 | 4% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 14-20 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 21+ | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Jaguars vs. Ravens. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 82% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-11-06T01:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $733K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Predictionwetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
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