Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 99% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 99% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 99% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 99% |
| O/U 38.5 | 98% |
| 1H Moneyline | 98% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 97% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 97% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 40.5 | 96% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 96% |
| Lions vs. Cardinals | 95% |
| O/U 42.5 | 95% |
| Spread -1.5 | 95% |
| O/U 44.5 | 94% |
| Spread -2.5 | 94% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 93% |
| Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Spread -4.5 | 90% |
| O/U 46.5 | 90% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| Spread -5.5 | 88% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 88% |
| Spread -6.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 48.5 | 84% |
| Spread -7.5 | 82% |
| O/U 50.5 | 81% |
| Spread -8.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 80% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| Spread -9.5 | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| O/U 52.5 | 73% |
| O/U 54.5 | 68% |
| Spread -13.5 | 68% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -14.5 | 62% |
| O/U 56.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Spread -16.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 56% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| O/U 60.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Spread -19.5 | 47% |
| Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| Spread -17.5 | 46% |
| Spread -19.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 44% |
| Lions vs. Cardinals: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -20.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 39% |
| O/U 62.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 66.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 68.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -1.5 | 5% |
| Spread -2.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 2% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Lions vs. Cardinals — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Lions and Cardinals, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if Lions win the game. This market will resolve to "Cardinals"…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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