Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 65% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| O/U 38.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| O/U 45.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 35% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Broncos vs. Chiefs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 45% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-15T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.4M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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