Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 93% |
| O/U 23.5 | 92% |
| Panthers O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 89% |
| O/U 26.5 | 87% |
| Panthers O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 27.5 | 83% |
| O/U 28.5 | 83% |
| Panthers O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| O/U 29.5 | 79% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 31.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| Panthers O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| O/U 33.5 | 68% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 67% |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | 64% |
| O/U 35.5 | 64% |
| O/U 34.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 1H Moneyline | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| Panthers O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 56% |
| O/U 37.5 | 55% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| Panthers O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| O/U 38.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Panthers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Panthers O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| Panthers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 42.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 39% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 43.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 17.5 | 34% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 1-6 | 34% |
| Panthers vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 44.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 45.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Safety? | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 26% |
| O/U 47.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 25% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 25% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Panthers O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 48.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 50.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Panthers O/U 26.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 51.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Panthers O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 11% |
| O/U 55.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| O/U 60.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 93% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Panthers vs. Eagles. In the upcoming NFL football game between Panthers and Eagles, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Panthers" if Panthers win the game. This market will resolve to "Eagl…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $231K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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