Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 96% |
| O/U 23.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 25.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 27.5 | 91% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 88% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 80% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| O/U 35.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 37.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| Raiders vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| O/U 45.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Raiders vs. Saints | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| O/U 49.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 31% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 55.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 25+ | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 19-24 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 13-18 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-12 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 15% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 61.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 96% Chance für prognose: raiders vs. saints. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:25PM ET: If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $294K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Raiders vs. Saints auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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