Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 84% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 67% |
| O/U 39.5 | 66% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 66% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| Packers vs. Jets | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 1H Moneyline | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-13 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Packers vs. Jets: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 14-20 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 21+ | 49% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 49% |
| O/U 44.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| O/U 54.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 15% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Packers vs. Jets — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, thi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $868K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Predictionwetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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