Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 90% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 33.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 83% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| O/U 47.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| O/U 49.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -11.5 | 41% |
| O/U 50.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Spread -12.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers | 23% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| O/U 62.5 | 16% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 65.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 97% Chance für prognose: cardinals vs. 49ers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:05PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $229K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23be123c%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers" auf Predictionwetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →