Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 33.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 34.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 90% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 86% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 80% |
| O/U 42.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 62% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 49.5 | 59% |
| O/U 50.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| O/U 52.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 48% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 47% |
| O/U 53.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 57.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| O/U 58.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| O/U 61.5 | 26% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 24% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| O/U 62.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 63.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| O/U 67.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 71.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Commanders vs. 49ers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 23% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-20T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $167K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Predictionwetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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