Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 21.5 | 93% |
| O/U 23.5 | 92% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| O/U 25.5 | 91% |
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 87% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 29.5 | 82% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Jaguars O/U 18.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 32.5 | 74% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 68% |
| Jaguars O/U 15.5 | 68% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| O/U 35.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -5.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 64% |
| Jaguars O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2H Moneyline | 59% |
| O/U 37.5 | 58% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spread -8.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Browns 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| Browns O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| Jaguars O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Browns O/U 22.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| O/U 50.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 55.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| O/U 57.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 60.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 25+ | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-12 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| Browns O/U 28.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 4% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 13-18 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 19-24 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Browns vs. Jaguars" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Browns wins, the market will resolve to "Browns". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $100K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Browns vs. Jaguars über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Predictionwetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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