Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 79% |
| O/U 212.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 73% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| O/U 215.5 | 68% |
| O/U 218.5 | 62% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| O/U 220.5 | 57% |
| O/U 221.5 | 56% |
| O/U 222.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| O/U 223.5 | 51% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 224.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| O/U 225.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 228.5 | 40% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 231.5 | 34% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 234.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 23% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 22% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 15% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 11% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 79% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $76K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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