Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 37% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 31% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 6% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 91% Chance für prognose: england vs. argentina - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Predictionwetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf Predictionwetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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