Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: côte d'ivoire vs. norway - player props 81%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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