Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Utah vs. Colorado | 94% |
| Spread -0.5 | 93% |
| Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| Spread -3.5 | 89% |
| Spread -1.5 | 89% |
| Utah O/U 20.5 | 89% |
| Utah O/U 23.5 | 89% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 88% |
| Spread -4.5 | 87% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 87% |
| Spread -5.5 | 86% |
| O/U 35.5 | 86% |
| Spread -6.5 | 85% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 84% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 82% |
| O/U 37.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Spread -7.5 | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 78% |
| O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 77% |
| Spread -11.5 | 76% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 75% |
| Spread -9.5 | 74% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 72% |
| Utah O/U 26.5 | 71% |
| Spread -8.5 | 70% |
| Spread -15.5 | 69% |
| Spread -14.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| Spread -13.5 | 67% |
| O/U 45.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| Spread -12.5 | 66% |
| Spread -16.5 | 64% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Utah O/U 32.5 | 63% |
| O/U 43.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -20.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -17.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Colorado 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 51% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Colorado Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 51% |
| Colorado Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 51% |
| Colorado 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Utah O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Utah 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Utah 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Colorado Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Utah vs. Colorado: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -36.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Utah O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Colorado O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 49% |
| Colorado Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Colorado Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 49% |
| Utah 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Utah Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Spread -23.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| O/U 49.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| O/U 51.5 | 44% |
| Spread -22.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Spread -24.5 | 40% |
| Spread -26.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| O/U 57.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| O/U 63.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -30.5 | 28% |
| Spread -29.5 | 28% |
| O/U 67.5 | 27% |
| O/U 69.5 | 25% |
| Spread -32.5 | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| O/U 73.5 | 23% |
| O/U 75.5 | 23% |
| Colorado O/U 23.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Spread -33.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -2.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -1.5 | 7% |
| Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| Spread -5.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Utah vs. Colorado" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming college football game between Utah and Colorado, scheduled for October 17 at 10:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Utah" if Utah win the game. This market will resolve to "Colorado"…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $217K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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