Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 92% |
| Spread -0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 35.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| Spread -0.5 | 61% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State | 56% |
| O/U 37.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Northwestern O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 43.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| O/U 55.5 | 32% |
| Northwestern O/U 23.5 | 32% |
| O/U 57.5 | 31% |
| O/U 61.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| O/U 67.5 | 30% |
| O/U 69.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 29% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Moneyline | 23% |
| Michigan State O/U 23.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| O/U 47.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 19% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 49.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 51.5 | 10% |
| O/U 53.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| O/U 59.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| O/U 65.5 | 2% |
| O/U 71.5 | 2% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: northwestern vs. michigan state 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Northwestern and Michigan State, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Northwestern" if Northwestern wi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $336K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Northwestern vs. Michigan State auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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