Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| Kansas State O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| O/U 47.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Kansas State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| Arizona State O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State | 52% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Kansas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| O/U 53.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Kansas State O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Arizona State O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 57.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Kansas State O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| Kansas State O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Kansas State O/U 32.5 | 32% |
| Arizona State O/U 35.5 | 32% |
| Kansas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 30% |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 29% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Arizona State O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Arizona State O/U 32.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 26% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| O/U 67.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| O/U 73.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 75.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Kansas State vs. Arizona State — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 84%. In the upcoming college football game between Kansas State and Arizona State, scheduled for October 24 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas State" if Kansas State win the game. This marke…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $192K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Kansas State vs. Arizona State über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Predictionwetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Predictionwetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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