Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Predictionwetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 92% |
| Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| Spread -2.5 | 89% |
| Spread -3.5 | 85% |
| Spread -4.5 | 83% |
| Spread -5.5 | 82% |
| O/U 35.5 | 81% |
| Temple O/U 23.5 | 81% |
| Spread -6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 76% |
| Spread -7.5 | 75% |
| Spread -8.5 | 71% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| Spread -10.5 | 69% |
| O/U 41.5 | 67% |
| Spread -11.5 | 67% |
| O/U 43.5 | 65% |
| Spread -13.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 61% |
| Spread -14.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| Spread -15.5 | 57% |
| Spread -16.5 | 56% |
| O/U 45.5 | 55% |
| Spread -32.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -17.5 | 52% |
| Spread -36.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Temple O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Temple 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Temple 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Temple 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Temple 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Temple Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -42.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Charlotte O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -19.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 45% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| Spread -20.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -21.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| Temple O/U 35.5 | 38% |
| Spread -22.5 | 37% |
| Spread -23.5 | 37% |
| O/U 53.5 | 35% |
| Spread -24.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 32% |
| O/U 55.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| Spread -25.5 | 29% |
| Spread -26.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| Spread -27.5 | 26% |
| Charlotte O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 57.5 | 23% |
| Spread -29.5 | 23% |
| Spread -28.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Spread -30.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| Charlotte O/U 23.5 | 16% |
| 1H Moneyline | 16% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -35.5 | 11% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| Charlotte vs. Temple | 9% |
| Spread -0.5 | 9% |
| Spread -38.5 | 8% |
| O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 5% |
| O/U 75.5 | 5% |
| O/U 73.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Charlotte vs. Temple — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 92%. In the upcoming college football game between Charlotte and Temple, scheduled for October 17 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Charlotte" if Charlotte win the game. This market will resolve t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $163K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Predictionwetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23be123c%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Charlotte vs. Temple" auf Predictionwetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →